Cravy SMU — Financial Model

Inputs

All numbers editable · sliders for the most uncertain assumptions

Revenue Drivers

Traffic preset

Operating days

Avg Blended Ticket ($)

$8.00

Cravy menu: chicken $6-8, tteokbokki $8-10, sets $10, drinks $2. Blended estimate.

HIGH season tickets/day

Full term in session

MED season tickets/day

Recess weeks, term-start ramp, holiday weeks

LOW season tickets/day

Vacation, summer (Term 3 light)

Cost Structure

COGS (% of revenue)

35%

Royalty (% of revenue)

Per Cravy LOI

Rent / mo ($)

Staff Headcount

Staff $ / hc / mo

Utilities / mo ($)

Other Fixed / mo ($)

Marketing, insurance, supplies, telco

Capital (One-Time)

Franchise / License Fee ($)

Takeover Fee ($)

Reno + Signage ($)

Security Deposit (auto: 3 × rent)

$7,500

Always 3 months rent · changes when rent changes

Legal & Setup ($)

Working Capital Buffer ($)

—

Year 1 Operating Calendar (Jul 2026 → Jun 2027)

Verified against official SMU UG/JD Calendar AY2026-27 · Working days fixed · Override Season per month if needed

Source: SMU UG/JD Calendar AY2026-27

Term 1: 17 Aug 2026 – 6 Dec 2026 (with Recess Week 5–11 Oct) · Vacation: 7 Dec 2026 – 10 Jan 2027 · Term 2: 11 Jan – 2 May 2027 (with Recess Week 1–7 Mar) · Optional Term 3A: 3 May – 6 Jun · Optional Term 3B: 21 Jun – 25 Jul (lighter student presence) · 15-week vacation: 7 Jun onwards.

Assumptions Summary

Quick reference of how revenue and cost inputs translate into the model

Revenue Build

High months × annual—
Med months × annual—
Low months × annual—
Y1 total revenue—
Y1 monthly avg—

Cost Snapshot (per High month)

Revenue (High)—
COGS—
Royalty—
Total fixed—
Net (High month)—
Operating breakeven revenue—

Ticket × Daily Volume Sensitivity

Y1 net P&L if ticket size and HIGH-season daily transactions differ from base

24-Month P&L

Y1 follows partner's calendar exactly · Y2 mirrors same calendar pattern

Cumulative Cash Position

After starting capital · Each bar = end-of-month

Comparison vs Earlier Forecasts

This model vs your partner's spreadsheet vs the original Coffee Hive model (different brand/terms, for context only)

Metric	This model	Partner's	Coffee Hive (context)	Δ

About the Coffee Hive column

Coffee Hive was an entirely different bet — different brand (kopitiam, not Korean fried chicken), different (full-format) location, and different franchise terms ($50k fee, $250k+ capital). It's shown here for context only, not as a like-for-like comparison. The current Cravy SMU bet is fundamentally smaller and more contained.

In Plain English

What the numbers mean for the bet

Things This Model Doesn't Know

Reality checks before signing

Ticket × Volume is the entire model

Every dollar of revenue = (avg ticket) × (daily transactions) × (working days). The model is most sensitive to these two inputs. Get any data you can from Cravy on their existing outlets — even rough "X tickets/day on a good day" is gold.

Y1 starts in July — worst-case timing

SMU campus is mostly empty in July (vacation) and through to mid-August. Term 1 only starts 17 Aug. So your first 1.5 months are LOW season. If you can delay opening to mid-August, Y1 cashflow improves materially. Worth negotiating with Indo Express on takeover timing.

Term 3 (May–Jul 2027) modelled as LOW

SMU has Optional Term 3A (3 May – 6 Jun) and Term 3B (21 Jun – 25 Jul). About 30-40% of students attend summer modules. Partner's original treated this entire period as Low. This may be too conservative — try setting May-Jul as MED instead and see the impact.

Capital is tight at $52.5k

Working capital buffer is only $3,000. If equipment surprises happen (Indo Express's kitchen vs Cravy's frying needs) or revenue undershoots in the first 2-3 months, $3k won't cover it. Consider increasing buffer to $5-8k as insurance.

Public holidays on weekdays = lost revenue

Each PH that falls on a weekday (Mon-Fri) = 1 less working day = ~5% revenue hit for that month. Working day counts in the calendar above account for this — verify the actual PH dates against MOM 2026/2027 list.